Welcome back to day two of our 2017 Oscar predictions. We’ve got 12 more categories for you today, including all of the ones you actually care about! Get ready to read La La Land a lot!
Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
If we’re trying to pick simply the best writing out of these five, then Manchester by the Sea is the clear winner. It’s a powerfully meditative story of the all-encompassing nature of grief. The writing is sharp, poignant, and unexpectedly funny in places. Unfortunately, I think La La Land is going to nab this category too. It’s not that I don’t enjoy the writing in La La Land. Damien Chazelle’s work manages to throwback to old Hollywood while still carving out a new place in the traditional romance musical space. It’s just that I love the Manchester script so much. Oh well, I’d be happy either way.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
This category is absolutely stacked with great scripts. Fences aligns so closely to the play from which it was adapted that playwright August Wilson has the sole writing credit on the screenplay. Barry Jenkins assisted in turning an unperformed play into Moonlight, an incredibly unique and wonderful script. And then there’s Arrival, an adaptation of a thirty-page short that had the herculean task of taking a plot centered around language and mathematical calculations and turn it into something that people would actually enjoy watching. This is a tough choice, but I think Moonlight is going to take the win. Well deserved.
What will win: Moonlight
What should win: Moonlight
Documentary – Feature
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
The winner of documentary feature will help settle a debate that has raged in the film world since the rise of streaming services. What is a film? The clear frontrunner is O.J.: Made in America, an eight-hour five-part miniseries that originally premiered on ESPN. The documentary was also screened in theaters just enough times to obtain Oscar eligibility. O.J. is powerful and uses its length to really get down into the details of both who O.J. Simpson was and is and history and situation within the LAPD that led to his eventual acquittal. Close behind it is 13th, a look into the aftermath of the 13th amendment and how the criminal justice system in America became the new form of enslavement for African Americans. 13th was a Netflix documentary that also screened in theaters just enough times to obtain Oscar eligibility. The line between TV show, miniseries, and feature film has been blurring for some time now, but in 2017, it will cease to exist. 13th is wonderful. I Am Not Your Negro is powerful. But O.J. is the best documentary on this list. TV Show? Movie? Regardless…it will win.
What will win: O.J.: Made in America
What should win: O.J.: Made in America
Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
A best animated feature film category without a Pixar movie is like a pizza without cheese: Sure you could do it, but…weird. Unfortunately, the only film Pixar put out this year was the mediocre Finding Dory. We still get two Disney animation films, however, with both Moana and Zootopia representing the mouse house. Kubo and the Two Strings is clearly the best in this list and one of the best movies of last year period, but I have a feeling Disney is going to pull this one out. Zootopia seems to be the favorite, an original movie with a powerful metaphor on racism that you don’t often see in kids films like this. Disney took a big risk with this film, and it’s looking to pay off.
What will win: Zootopia
What should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
The editing award usually goes to the most popular picture of the year because most Academy members, and people in general, have a difficult time recognizing good editing. Bad editing is easy enough to catch, but good? All the movies on this list have pretty spectacular editing, but I think the Academy is going to give it to La La Land’s Tom Cross, who stitched together some pretty kinetic dance numbers throughout the run time of the film. Cross already won an Oscar for his spectacular work in Chazelle’s last film Whiplash and I think he gets number 2.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: La La Land
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
For whatever reason, this category is the only one that Martin Scorsese’s religious epic Silence is nominated. Every film in this category is beautifully shot, from the one-take opening in La La Land to the beautiful use of color that permeates every scene in Moonlight. I think La La Land will pull this one out but look at Moonlight and Arrival as dark horses.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: La La Land
Directing
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
I’d be outstandingly happy for every single director nominated in this category, except Mel Gibson. Fuck Mel Gibson. Unsurprisingly, Damien Chazelle is the favorite here. La La Land is the darling of the Academy this year. It’s also spectacular film. Have a made that clear enough? I might want other films to win in some of these categories, but La La Land is really, really good. It’s hard to see the Academy honoring the film this much without giving the director credit that he is due. I’d prefer that Barry Jenkins pick up the award, though. If for some reason you haven’t gotten the chance to see Moonlight, do yourself a favor and fix this immediately.
What will win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
What should win: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomi Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
A really powerful list of ladies, but this one is just about a 100% lock for Viola Davis. While I was pretty mixed on Fences as a whole, the performances by Davis and co-star Denzel Washington were clearly the best parts of the film. I feel a little bad for Davis getting plugged into the Supporting Actress category as she’s clearly the female lead of the film. It’s hard to get too bent out of shape though because it results in her getting an extremely well deserved Oscar. A quick shout out to Michelle Williams who delivers a very brief but extremely powerful performance in Manchester by the Sea. There is a particular scene that is so raw and affecting that I cried like a little baby.
What will win: Viola Davis – Fences
What should win: Viola Davis – Fences
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
It’s good to see Michael Shannon get a nod for his work in Nocturnal Animals. I felt pretty mixed about the movie as a whole but Shannon’s no-nonsense cop of the story within the story is the highlight of the film for me. Jeff Bridges was also spectacular in the underrated Hell or High Water, using his normal ‘guy who talks like there’s something in his mouth’ schtick to great effect. The winner here, however, is going to be Mahershala Ali as the drug dealer with a heart of gold in Moonlight. Ali’s stint in the film is far too brief, but he’s the lynchpin of the story. His character sets everything in motion and becomes a defining point in young Chiron’s story. That we completely by the effect of his presence in the young man’s life in just these handful of scenes is a testament to the power of Ali’s performance.
What will win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
What should win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Meryl Streep’s inclusion in this category can be chalked up to the Meryl Streep effect. I don’t believe she has any real chance at winning. Ruth Negga is unfortunatly in a similar boat with very little chance to win. So the race here is between the remaining three nominees. I found Natalie Portman’s portrayal of Jackie Kennedy absolutely wonderful, but the performance was pretty polarizing. Some people appreciated the accent Portman was trying to pull off and some people could not get past it. I think it’s enough to knock her out of contention. Isabelle Huppert’s performance in Elle is something else entirely. Paul Verhoeven’s deeply disturbing look into a rape victim’s life is something that I had never seen before. Huppert’s performance is transcendent, perfectly capturing what is an insanely complicated character. Emma Stone has the privilege of being the best performance in a incredibly popular film, so I think she will pick up the Oscar. Don’t count out Huppert though. The Academy could use this to award her not only for her work in Elle, but as a recognition of a lifetime of incredible acting work.
What will win: Emma Stone – La La Land
What should win: Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
I’m not sure why Andrew Garfield was nominated here. If you want to give Garfield an Oscar nomination, give it to him for his great performance in Silence, not the messy Hacksaw Ridge. While everyone seems to love La La Land, the general consensus is that Gosling’s performance is the weakest part of the film. For the longest time, it seemed like Casey Affleck was a lock for his nuanced and quiet role in Manchester by the Sea. It’s not something that usually wins an Oscar. Affleck has no thunderous, declarative “Oscar moments.” What he does have is the ability to communicate complex emotions with minimal dialog and controlled micro expressions. Make no mistake, what Affleck is doing in this film is truly next level. But then Denzel Washington won the SAG Award and suddenly we had a competition again. Washington’s performance is everything Affleck’s isn’t. It’s loud, boisterous and filled with dialogue. Washington has probably three or four ‘Oscar moments’ before the credits roll. I think it’s going to be a very close competition between the two actors, but I think Denzel will pull off the win in the end. I’d be extremely happy with either.
What will win: Denzel Washington – Fences
What should win: Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
This time last year I was terrified that The Revenant would snag best picture, a film that not only wasn’t as good as any of its competition but also just wasn’t very good period. The Academy smiled upon me and gave the wonderful Spotlight the win. This year, I have no such worries. The only overrated film on this list is Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, but that has next to no chance of winning. The competition here seems to be between La La Land and Moonlight, two of the best films of the year. It’s an extremely good place to be. I think La La Land is going to win. It’s a movie celebrating Hollywood and actors and just seems tailor-made to succeed in this contest. But considering last year’s win for Spotlight, it’s not crazy to think that Moonlight could sneak in there and steal the show. Either way, I’m absolutely thrilled.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: La La Land
Well, there you have it. I am predicting La La Land wins 11 of its 14 nominations which ties for the most wins ever. This might be a little aggressive, but I just have a feeling we’re gonna have a night of La La Land. What about you? Do you agree with my picks? Are you excited for this year’s awards? Let me know in the comments below!
