Another year, another Academy Awards! Continuing my annual tradition I am here to give all you fine predictions for who will take home the gold. Historically, I’ve gotten about 75% of these correct …which is pretty good! Today we’re going to discuss the first 12 categories, which include some of the smaller ones that most of you people don’t care about. Tomorrow we’ll tackle the final 12 including all of the big ones.
On to the predictions!
Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Last year I confidently stated that a movie that is not also nominated for best picture almost never wins this category. Not only was I wrong then when Ex Machina picked up the well-deserved award, but I’m also doubly wrong as zero of this year’s nominees are also up for best picture. So basically, I have no idea what I’m talking about. And yet, you’re still here reading this. So, yay for me. To me, the best example of special effects this year was in the stop motion animation film Kubo and the Two Strings. The film married CGI with stop motion techniques to create an absolutely beautiful experience that often had me jaw agape wondering exactly how they did that. The favorite, I think though is Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book, which was almost entirely special effects. The other nominees certainly look pretty, but I think this is a foot race between those top two.
What will win: The Jungle Book
What should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
LA LA Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Ah yes, here’s my annual tradition of explaining to people what ‘sound mixing’ actually means and how it is different from ‘sound editing.’ Mixing, in this category, is how the different sound effects created in the Sound Editing category are ‘mixed’ together to create the final finished film product. This award almost exclusively goes to musicals when they are nominated, so La La Land is a pretty safe bet here. It’s also well deserved.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: La La Land
Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
This category usually goes to war movies if nominated, so I’m fairly certain Hacksaw Ridge will pick this up. Certainly, a shame as I think Arrival has some of the best sound work out there this year. The film’s sound effects strike a perfectly eerie chord and the otherworldly alien noises are just wonderful. It’s certainly possible that Arrival will dark horse this one in, but I think the explosions and gunfire will be a siren’s call for the Academy.
What will win: Hacksaw Ridge
What should win: Arrival
Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar
La La Land
Passengers
In the world of production design, bigger is better. Last year’s winner Mad Max: Fury Road created an entire post-apocalyptic world from scratch. This year, it’s hard not to look at the amazing Hail, Caesar which managed to create not one, but multiple staged numbers in its recreation of the golden age of Hollywood. Normally, I’d say Caesar is a lock if it weren’t for La La Land, which also created several beautifully staged numbers and is also one of the most popular films ever. I’m not saying that La La Land doesn’t deserve this award, I’m just really bitter about Hail, Caesar not being received as warmly.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: Hail, Caesar
Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Period pieces are the king of costume design. Everyone loves seeing designers recreate the dress and style of yesteryear. It’s for this reason that La La Land is actually at a disadvantage in this category (one of the few). Its costumes are great and it’s a throwback to golden age Hollywood, but not technically a period piece. Who cares how modern people dress? I’m giving this to Jackie whose recreation of the first lady’s iconic pink suit will be sure to catch the attention of the Academy.
What will win: Jackie
What should win: Jackie
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
This is the second year in a row that a Swedish film has snuck into the Makeup and Hairstyling category. What is going on in Sweden? Besides all that rampant terrorism, I mean. I’m going to give this to Star Trek Beyond for making Idris Elba look like a scary alien version of Idris Elba. I don’t think enough of the Academy will have seen A Man Called Ove to vote for it, and I think enough of the Academy will have seen Suicide Squad to definitely not vote for it.
What will win: Star Trek Beyond
What should win: Star Trek Beyond
Short Film – Live Action
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Last year the live action short category was filled with four of the most depressing short films I’ve ever seen and one cute short with a happy ending, which ended up winning. This year the shorts are a little more diverse, ranging from depressing, uplifting, all the way to downright silly. Ennemis Interieurs was my favorite of the batch, dealing with an Algerian attempting to get French citizenship during the Algerian Civil War of the 90s. I think it’s most likely going to win due to the increased attention on immigration around the world these days. Honestly though, I’d be happy with any winner here.
What will win: Ennemis Interieurs
What should win: Ennemis Interieurs
Short Film – Animated
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
I think there’s an unwritten rule that Pixar cannot go a year without winning an Academy Award. Since the mediocre Finding Dory didn’t snag a nomination this year, it’s up to the short film Piper to do the trick. Fortunately, Piper is the clear front runner here. Not only is it an incredible achievement in animation (the realism and detail) but it’s a cute little short that’s a testament to Pixar’s storytelling chops. Easy win.
What will win: Piper
What should win: Piper
Documentary – Short Subject
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Once again I haven’t gotten the chance to see any of the Documentary Shorts this year, so I’m unable to expound on any of these nominees in any meaningful way. The White Helmets is a story about volunteer aid workers in war-torn Syria, so it seems like it would probably the favorite from a political perspective, so let’s go with that!
What will win: The White Helmets
What should win: N/A
Music – Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Let’s not waste a lot of time here. La La Land is going to win this category. The scores of Jackie and Moonlight were absolutely magnificent, but this is the year for La La Land.
What will win: La La Land
What should win: La La Land
Music – Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
For the longest time, I thought that Moana’s “How Far I’ll Go” was a lock, gifting the incredible Lin-Manuel Miranda his EGOT. But now, I’m not so sure. Moana has faded from public consciousness way faster than I anticipated and La La Land is universally loved and a serious contender for best picture. Moana’s only hope is that enough votes are split between the two La La Land songs that it pulls out the upset. I doubt that happens, though. La La Land will win this category, but which song? I’m going to say “City of Stars” pulls out the victory here. Even though it’s one of the weakest songs in the film, it’s become the unofficial musical mascot. “Audition” is way, way, way better, though. Oh also, I’m still angry about Sing Street not getting nominated in this category. COME ON ACADEMY
What will win: “City of Stars” from La La Land
What should win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream”) from La La Land
Foreign Language Film
Tanna – Australia
Land of Mine – Denmark
Toni Erdmann – Germany
The Salesman – Iran
A Man called Ove – Sweden
This is probably the most contentious category of the night thanks to President Trump’s Muslim ban. While Toni Erdmann has been the out and out favorite for a while, the Academy has the opportunity to send a political statement by awarding Iranian director Asghar Farhadi the win for The Salesman. Farhadi’s film is great, but Erdmann is an out and out masterpiece. This choice comes down to how much you think the Academy hates Trump. My guess is a lot.
What will win: The Salesman
What should win: Toni Erdmann
And that’s all we have for the first 12 categories! Check back tomorrow for the final 12 including the big acting awards. Do I think La La Land will break records? Will Arrival win anything? Find out tomorrow!
